· “UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields” Preview & Predictions

He is the most watched fighter on the planet. He has held multiple titles in multiple weight divisions. He has beaten legendary figures in the sport. He is one of the most dominant fighters in mixed martial arts history. He is one of the sports top pound-for-pound fighters. He has one of the most impressive competition resumes in the world. But he is not Georges St-Pierre, Randy Couture, Jose Aldo, or Lyoto Machida. He is Jake Shields, and believe it or not, he is in position to walk out of “UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields” with one of the biggest upset wins ever.

With 55,000 rabid mixed martial arts fans set to rock the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario MMA Spot breaks down what will become the UFC biggest live events ever. In the main event, Canadian Georges St-Pierre puts his UFC welterweight title on the line against top contender Jake Shields.

Featherweight sensation Jose Aldo will defend his UFC title against Mark Hominick in what is sure to be a barn-burner of a bout. Not to be outdone, Randy “The Natural” Couture could be wrapping up a Hall of Fame career when he meets former light heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida.

Not to be overlooked are the other two main event card bouts. Veteran Vladimir Matyushenko will take on Jason Brilz in a pivotal light heavyweight contest. And former WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson will make his UFC debut against Mark Bocek.

Georges St-Pierre (21-2 MMA, 15-2 UFC) vs. Jake Shields (26-4-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC)
UFC Welterweight Championship Bout
Many believe that this fight is Georges St-Pierre’s to win. The deck certainly seems stacked for his opponent. As if battling the champion is not tough enough, Jake Shields will have to contend with a hostile crowd, the absence of his coach/trainer Cesar Gracie from cage side, and the pressure of proving himself to the millions of fans around the world—not to mention the grueling pre-fight media blitz that has certainly served as some distraction for the once unknown grappling ace.

However, Shields has seemingly made a career out of being doubted and having his back against the wall. His win over Dan Henderson has to be one of the most impressive performances in his career. With an entire organization seemingly rooting against him, and free agency hanging over his head, the welterweight defended his Strikeforce middleweight title against the legendary Dan Henderson. Shields battled back from an early knockdown to dominate the former Pride champion.

Will that translate to a win against a fighter that has won 31 consecutive rounds of fighting since losing his title to Matt Serra four years ago? That remains to be seen. But it is just as likely that all of the factors lining up against Shields, could also serve to be GSP’s downfall. All of the pressure to win will be on the champion. One moment of distraction, one missed step, one minor mistake, and a tactical submission specialist like Shields could end the champion’s streak.

On paper, the fight looks like a mismatch, with St-Pierre holding an edge in almost every category. However, a closer look at the numbers shows us that the two fighters are very similar, and that this fight may come down to the intangibles that each fighter brings to the cage. Those intangibles are:

Conditioning – St-Pierre’s cardio is among some of the best in the sport. And with Shields’ admittedly “gassing out” quickly in his fight against Kampmann, St-Pierre certainly has the advantage here.

Resolve – St-Pierre has been so dominant throughout his career that he almost forfeits this category to Shields by default. As it is, Shields has shown he can take the best from a fighter (Henderson) and the worst in himself (Kampmann) to still perform and win. Advantage goes to Shields.

Experience – With both fighters having multiple championship fights and facing a wide variety of fighting styles, this category has to be declared a draw.

Speed – Shields is deceptively slow, especially in his striking game, and St-Pierre has some of the quickest jabs and takedowns in the sport. The champion has an incredible advantage here.

Strength – Very rarely does GSP walk into the Octagon the smaller fighter, but that is likely to happen in this case. Shields may not look like Hercules, but former opponents have commented on how surprised they were at his ability to power through takedowns or submissions. In a slight edge, we give this one to Shields.

Training – Both fighters train with all-star rosters of fighters. However, having helped trained others in preparation for GSP, and bringing in the likes of Olympian Ben Askren, Chael Sonnen, Matt Lindland along with his regular training partners Nate Diaz, Nick Diaz, and Gilbert Melendez, the challenger should be well prepared to face GSP wherever the fight may go. Conversely, because of the uniqueness of Jake Shields’ grappling, Team GSP likely had a hard time finding people to imitate him in the gym. Shields squeaks out another advantage.

Game Planning – Conventional wisdom would say that Greg Jackson is the foremost mastermind when it comes setting strategies for his fighters; and St-Pierre’s run under Jackson does nothing to dispute that. Not to be outdone though, a camp does not produce championship caliber fighters at the rate Cesar Gracie does by mere accident. Because it is unlikely that Gracie would ever use the gem “hit him with your groin,” we’re going to side with Jackson and GSP here.

Future – No fighter will ever admit to looking past his current opponent, but we all know it happens. As each fighter looks into the crystal ball, they see very similar paths with a win, but they see very different futures if they were to lose. GSP has the entire MMA world, including his boss Dana White, penciling him into a fight with Anderson Silva—a fight he has shown reluctance to embrace. On the other hand, Shields, who could arguably lay claim to being the top contender at both welterweight and middleweight, would jump at the chance to face Silva. With a loss, Shields could very well end up in the same position Jon Fitch has been in. Since losing to the champion, Fitch has strung together a 5-0-1 record, and could still be two wins away from another chance at the title. Conversely, a loss by St-Pierre and he is at worst one fight away from a rematch. Because there is more at stake for Shields with a loss, and he seems less reticent to accept the challenges of the future, we give him the edge.
Fight Prediction – Jake Shields by submission (anaconda choke) in round three.


Jose Aldo (18-1 MMA, 8-0 WEC/UFC) vs. Mark Hominick (20-8 MMA, 6-2 WEC/UFC)
UFC Featherweight Championship Bout
Mark Hominick showed his impressive striking game in his last outing against George Roop. However, Jose Aldo is not George Roop. While Hominick is a respected well-rounded fighter, it’s the supremacy of Aldo that will determine the fight result.

As crazy as it sounds, people that have trained with or know Aldo say that he is equally as impressive on the ground as he is on the feet. If Hominick buys into those statements, it is likely that he will look to contest this fight either in the clinch or standing at a distance. Neither option has proven to be successful for Aldo’s previous opponents. Expect to see Aldo work similarly as he did against Faber. He will use his leg kicks to keep Hominick from closing the distance, and when he does get too close, expect to see the knees and elbows of Aldo come into play.
Fight Prediction – Jose Aldo by TKO early in round four.


Randy Couture (19-10 MMA, 16-7 UFC) vs. Lyoto Machida (16-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC)
With Randy Couture stating that this will be his last bout, regardless of the outcome, this fight will be bittersweet for fans. Couture is an icon in the sport. Whether you are a fan that has been behind “The Natural” since his debut in 1997, or if you only know of the Randy Couture that was turned the title over to Brock Lesnar, his career has undoubtedly influenced your love of the sport. It is fitting though, that one of the men responsible for bringing the sport out of the underground and into the mainstream be there to call it a career at the UFC’s biggest live event.

Unfortunately for “Captain America” he is likely leaving Toronto on his shield. He will be facing a motivated and determined Lyoto Machida. After following up his disappointing title loss to Rua, “The Dragon” lost a controversial decision to Quinton Jackson and cannot afford a third consecutive loss. While we know Couture’s game plan is to clinch and use his dirty boxing against the cage, the elusive Machida will make Couture chase him down. Machida will pepper Couture as he attempts just that. If the fight does manage to go into the clinch, Machida’s elbows and knees will be on display.
Fight Prediction – Lyoto Machida by unanimous decision.


Ben Henderson (12-2 MMA, 5-1 WEC/UFC) vs. Mark Bocek (9-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC)
Former WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson is not overrated. He might be overly talked about, but considering his personality and fighting style, that is understandable. Mark Bocek is severely underrated, and has been for a long time. Bocek has lost three times in his career. Two of those losses came to UFC Champion Frankie Edgar, and highly-ranked Jim Miller. It’s a safe bet that at the end of this fight, Bocek will no longer be underrated, and Ben Henderson will still not be overrated.

When we took time to examine both fighters, we came to a very quick conclusion, they are about as evenly matched as one could get.

Bocek is a grappler with very good submission skills and will use them at the slightest of openings. Henderson is a crafty grappler that can sneak submissions in from near-impossible positions. Both guys possess good wrestling and are difficult to control on the mat. The difference comes in the striking game. While Bocek has improved his striking strategy and skills, Henderson is still ahead of him in that department. However, after his performance against Anthony Pettis, his striking defense has been called into question, which could even things up in that department. Every time these two fighters step into the cage chances are good that you’ll have a “Fight of the Night” bonus candidate. This fight will be no different.
Fight Prediction – Mark Bocek by submission (rear-naked choke) in round three.


Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5 MMA, 6-3 UFC) vs. Jason Brilz (18-3-1 MMA, 3-2 UFC)
With the light heavyweight division in a constant state of flux, a definitive and demonstrative win by anyone could put them into the title contention conversation. That goes doubly for Matyushenko and Brilz. Jason Brilz is 3-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming by razor thin split decisions. However, he is looking for a “signature” win in order to make his mark on the division. A knockout or submission in this fight could send Brilz's reputation, and standing in the eyes of the organization, soaring; while a loss could place him behind the eight ball or worse, on the chopping block.

Vladimir Matyushenko is unlikely to face the same fate as Brilz if he does lose this bout, but he still needs an impressive performance in order to substantiate Joe Silva’s penchant for putting “The Janitor” in highly-marketable fights. To his credit, the 14-year veteran has made the most of his opportunities, with his only loss coming to now-UFC champion Jon Jones. This fight has the ability to be a sloppy slugfest with sporadic takedowns, or it could be a contender for one of the three post-fight bonuses. We believe that the former is most likely.
Fight Prediction - Vladimir Matyushenko by split decision.

Preliminary Card (SpikeTV):

Rory MacDonald (10-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (13-6 MMA, 8-4 UFC)
After almost a year since his loss to Condit, Rory MacDonald should be chomping at the bit to get back in the cage. Unfortunately, he will be meeting an angry and determined Nate Diaz. With teammate Daniel Roberts fighting before him and teammate Jake Shields fighting in the main event—along with the recent success of teammates Nick Diaz and Gilbert Melendez—Nate has all the motivation he needs to walk away with a win.

MacDonald has a penchant to take chances and leaves himself open to unnecessary punishment. Both are areas where Diaz is at his best. For MacDonald to win, he’ll need to be near flawless in his offensive execution while staying fully aware on defense. For Diaz, if he attacks and keeps the pressure on MacDonald, he should be able to stay off his back and force his opponent into mistakes.
Fight Prediction – Nate Diaz by submission (guillotine choke) in round two.


Jake Ellenberger (23-5 MMA, 3-1 UFC) vs. Sean Pierson (11-4 MMA, 1-0 UFC)
Sean Pierson turned a lot of heads when he beat Matt Riddle in December. Pierson is a good wrestler with an iron will. Aided by training with Georges St-Pierre, he is rarely caught off guard or kept in vulnerable positions very long. His opponent Jake Ellenberger shares many of these same traits. However, Ellenberger should have an edge in the wrestling and stand up.

The tipping point in this bout will rest on Ellenberger’s mental preparation. Is he disappointed to be fighting Pierson in Pierson’s home country after recently having several potential high profile bouts fall through, and overlooking Pierson? Or, is he frustrated and looking to take out his aggression on someone and show the world that he not only wants that high profile fight, but that he has earned it?
Fight Prediction – Jake Ellenberger by unanimous decision.

Preliminary Card (Facebook):

Daniel Roberts (12-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) vs. Claude Patrick (13-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC)
Fight Prediction – Daniel Roberts by submission in round two.

Ivan Menjivar (21-8 MMA, 0-2 WEC/UFC) vs. Charlie Valencia (12-6 MMA, 5-4 WEC/UFC)
Fight Prediction – Charlie Valencia by unanimous decision.

Jason MacDonald (24-14 MMA, 5-6 UFC) vs. Ryan Jensen (15-7 MMA, 2-5 UFC)
Fight Prediction – Jason MacDonald by unanimous decision.

Kyle Watson (13-6-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. John Makdessi (8-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC)
Fight Prediction – John Makdessi by TKO in round one.

Pablo Garza (10-1 MMA, 1-1 WEC/UFC) vs. Yves Jabouin (15-6 MMA, 1-2 WEC/UFC)
Fight Prediction – Pablo Garza by submission in round two.